China XD(601179) 长江证券·2024-11-15 01:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in performance for Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching 15.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 787 million yuan, up 45.33%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 781 million yuan, reflecting a 74.5% increase [4][5]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 4.903 billion yuan, a 3.74% increase year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 200% to 334 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 310 million yuan, marking a 384% increase [4][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company experienced a slight decrease in revenue quarter-on-quarter, attributed to the seasonal slowdown in grid delivery, particularly for conventional voltage products. However, there is an expectation for accelerated revenue growth in Q4 due to the National Grid's initiative to expedite transmission and transformation infrastructure projects [5][6]. Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 20.48%, an increase of 3.73 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3, the gross margin reached 23.74%, a significant increase of 6.51 percentage points year-on-year and 3.91 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by the delivery of ultra-high voltage products [5][6]. Expense Management - The company’s expense ratio for the first three quarters was 13.3%, up 0.64 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3, the expense ratio decreased to 13.92%, down 0.57 percentage points year-on-year, due to reductions in sales and management expenses. However, R&D spending increased, leading to a rise in the R&D expense ratio by 0.91 percentage points [5][6]. Inventory and Future Outlook - The company’s inventory at the end of Q3 reached 4.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27%, setting the stage for a strong Q4 delivery. The level of contract liabilities remains high, indicating potential for further performance release [6]. - The company is seeing rapid growth in orders from both domestic and international markets, with expectations for continued delivery of ultra-high voltage products in Q4. The forecast for the full year suggests a net profit of approximately 1.2 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 38 times [6].