CHINA COAL ENERGY(601898) 长江证券·2024-11-15 01:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.61 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 2.07 billion yuan year-on-year (down 12.4%) [4]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a net profit of 4.83 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.03 billion yuan year-on-year (down 0.6%) but an increase of 0.01 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter (up 0.2%) [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased production and a special dividend, which may enhance its valuation [5]. - The company plans to launch the Libei Coal Mine (4 million tons/year) and Weizigou Coal Mine (2.4 million tons/year) in 2025, which is anticipated to provide production flexibility and maintain profitability stability amid coal price fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company produced 102.31 million tons of self-produced coal, an increase of 1.14 million tons year-on-year (up 1.1%) [4]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal for the first three quarters was 571 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton year-on-year (down 5.3%) [4]. - The cost of self-produced coal sales for the first three quarters was 287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton year-on-year (down 2.8%) [4]. - The gross profit margin for self-produced coal was 49.8%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 18.55 billion yuan, 18.73 billion yuan, and 19.17 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.1x, 9.0x, and 8.8x based on the closing price on November 11 [5]. - The expected dividend yield for 2023 is 4.2%, with slight increases projected for the following years [5].