海外煤炭潜在供给收缩或不止印尼 [Table_ReportTime] 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 矿井产能利用率为 86.67%(-2.46 个百分点)。需求方面，内陆 17 省日 耗周环比下降 81.80 万吨/日(-18.1%)，沿海 8 省日耗周环比下降 16.30 万吨/日(-7.22%)。非电需求方面 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 6 期） 本周动力煤市场稳中有升，进口煤优势进一步收窄 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-08 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/25 11/25 02/26 煤炭开采 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 | | SFC CE No. AUS961 | | | 010-59136686 | | | shentao@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： 安鹏 | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 | | SFC CE No. BNW176 | | | 021-38003693 | | | an ...

煤炭周报 印尼减产增强供给收缩预期，看好节后行情 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 15.67 | 1.68 | 1.01 | 1.32 | 9 | 16 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 11.03 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 1.17 | 10 | 16 | 9 | 推荐 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | 13.37 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 1.01 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 推荐 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | 9.36 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 15 | 20 | 14 | 推荐 | | 600188 | 兖矿能源 | 15. ...

供给收缩或提振煤价，逢低再布局弹性标的 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 07 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 19,855.11 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 19,441.23 | 2026-02-02 配置机会》2026-01-31 2026-01-24 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to the revision of the RKAB quota, with production set at approximately 600 million tons, a notable decrease from 740 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. - The reduction in coal production is anticipated to lead to a tightening of coal supply, which may drive up global coal prices, particularly for thermal coal [7]. - The Indonesian government is implementing policies to control coal production and exports, aiming to enhance domestic energy security and increase fiscal revenue through coal export taxes [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the coal industry is 37, with a total market capitalization of approximately 198.55 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 194.41 billion yuan [2]. Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is reviewing the RKAB quotas, which are crucial for coal mining operations. The approval rate for the first batch of RKAB in 2026 was only 71.49%, with significant reductions in approved quotas for many companies [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic market obligation (DMO) will be adjusted to ensure local demand is met before allowing coal exports. The DMO demand is expected to remain above 250 million tons [7]. - The report predicts that Indonesia's coal exports will face substantial declines starting in Q2 2026, which will further constrain global coal supply and potentially elevate prices [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the thermal coal sector, including companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Huayang Co., and others, as they are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7].

证券日报网讯2月6日，中煤能源（601898）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月底公司 A股股东户数78147户，H股6985户。 ...

证券日报网讯 2月6日，中煤能源在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司生产经营一切正常，没有应 披露未披露信息，请以公司在法定信息披露媒体披露信息为准。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies directly benefiting from Indonesian coal resources, including China Qinfa, Power Development, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others [11]. Core Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by approximately 5.5% in 2025, with production estimated at 790 million tons, down from 836 million tons in 2024 [1][14]. - As the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia's coal exports are projected to decrease by about 5.0% in 2025, with total exports expected to reach 505 million tons [2][20]. - The report highlights significant declines in coal export revenue and tax contributions, leading to increased fiscal pressure on the Indonesian government [3][28]. - Domestic coal demand is expected to grow robustly, driven by population growth and increasing electricity needs [31]. - The Indonesian government plans to implement a series of policies to tighten coal production quotas, increase export taxes, and enhance domestic market obligations (DMO) to support coal prices and increase tax revenue [4][36]. Summary by Sections Coal Production and Export Trends - In 2025, Indonesia's coal production is projected to be 790 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% from 2024 [1][14]. - The coal export volume for 2025 is expected to be 505 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The export revenue for coal (excluding lignite) in the first eleven months of 2025 is reported at $22.17 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.27% [28]. Domestic Demand and Policy Changes - The IEA forecasts that Indonesia's coal consumption will reach approximately 266 million tons in 2025, primarily due to population growth and economic expansion [31]. - The Indonesian government is set to implement a "combination policy" to manage coal supply actively, which includes tightening production quotas and increasing export taxes [4][36]. Regulatory and Taxation Framework - New regulations will impose a progressive export tax ranging from 1% to 11%, depending on coal type and price, effective from 2026 [9][44]. - The introduction of stricter mining rights taxes linked to coal quality and production methods is expected to raise operational costs for coal producers [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes investment in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the changes in the Indonesian coal market, particularly those with strong domestic market presence and resilience to price fluctuations [11].

中国中煤能源集团有限公司（简称中国中煤）是国务院国资委监管的国有特大型重点骨干企业，其前身是1982年经国务院批准 成立的中国煤炭进出口总公司，经过多次兼并重组，2009年改制成为国有独资公司，并更名为中国中煤能源集团有限公司。主 营业务包括煤炭开发利用及相关贸易和服务，电力、热力生产供应及相关服务，煤基新材料及相关化学品开发利用，相关装备 制造及工程技术服务。现拥有及或有煤炭资源储量700亿吨以上，生产及在建煤矿69座，煤炭总产能3.1亿吨/年，煤炭年贸易量 近4亿吨。运营及在建煤化工项目11个，总产能超2000万吨，产品主要包括聚烯烃、甲醇、尿素、硝铵、焦炭等。在运在建火电 项目35个、装机规模4755万千瓦，新能源装机规模700万千瓦。煤矿设计建设、煤机装备制造综合实力、技术水平、市场占有率 居行业前列。拥有中煤能源（A＋H）、上海能源、新集能源3家上市公司。截至2025年6月，中国中煤管理资产总额超6000亿 元，职工12万人，连续6年获得国务院国资委经营业绩考核A级，连续6年位列《财富》世界企业500强。 中煤新集能源股份有限公司（以下简称公司）是中国中煤在皖二级企业，产业分布在皖赣两省，紧临长三角 ...

2025年印尼煤炭产量7.9亿吨，同比下降5%，已经较年初给予配额的9.17亿要明显下降，2026年印尼可 能大幅下调产量配额至6亿吨，较2025年产量下降24%，反应出印尼政府转变包括镍、煤炭在内资源品 出口策略，控量提价。 全球煤炭供需平衡可能在26年开始被打破，供给收缩需求抬升，看好上升周期 2025年印尼出口煤炭5.24亿吨，同比下降6.1%，是全球第一大动力煤出口国。如果按照26年产量6亿， 满足国内需求25%后，出口量最多只有4.5亿，较25年下降约0.74亿吨，占25年全球海运贸易额约5%， 加速全球煤炭供给收缩。除印尼外，澳洲26H2开始也有超过5%的产能因采矿证到期要开始退出；俄罗 斯产量缺乏资本开支支撑进入自然下滑趋势，同时美国5000万吨动力煤出口可能逐步全面转自用，全球 煤炭紧平衡将逐步兑现，看好煤价后续全球的上升周期。 国泰海通发布研报称，印尼出口政策调整，大幅削减产量配额反应出印尼政府转变包括镍、煤炭在内资 源品出口策略，控量提价。除印尼外，澳洲26H2开始也有超过5%的产能因采矿证到期要开始退出；俄 罗斯产量缺乏资本开支支撑进入自然下滑趋势，同时美国5000万吨动力煤出口可能逐步 ...