Fuanna(002327) 海通证券·2024-11-15 03:15Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a "luxury home textile" brand with a clear equity structure and stable growth [4] - The company has maintained steady revenue growth and profitability, with a high dividend yield and low volatility [4] - The home textile industry is a mature market, and the concentration of leading companies is expected to increase [5] - The company's revenue growth is more stable compared to peers, reflecting a focus on quality growth and prudent management [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 517 million, 561 million, and 606 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a reasonable valuation range of 8.03-9.26 yuan per share [6] Company Overview - The company was founded in 1994 and is a comprehensive home textile enterprise with five brands and five production and logistics bases [13] - The company's actual controller, Lin Guofang, holds 39.8% of the shares, and the second-largest shareholder, Chen Guohong, holds 14.6% [13] - The company's offline channels consist of both self-operated and franchised stores, with 498 self-operated stores and 1,033 franchised stores as of the first half of 2024 [15] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was 3.03 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 4.4% from 2014 to 2023 [18] - The company's gross margin in 2023 was 55.6%, and its net profit margin was 18.9% [19] - The company's dividend payout ratio has been increasing since 2018, reaching 95.1% in 2023, with a dividend yield of around 7.0% [20] Industry Analysis - The home textile industry in China is a mature market with a size of 256.7 billion yuan in 2023, expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.1% from 2023 to 2029 [22] - The concentration of the home textile market in China is expected to increase, with leading companies likely to gain market share through natural selection and proactive changes [22] - The top five companies in the home textile market have a combined market share of around 7.0%, with room for further concentration compared to developed countries [23] Competitive Landscape - The company's revenue growth is more stable compared to peers, with a CAGR of 4.9% from 2014 to 2023, lower than some competitors but with less volatility [32] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin are significantly higher than its peers, maintaining a gross margin of over 50% [32] - The company's operating cash flow is strong, with a cash content of net profit consistently above 100%, reflecting excellent cash generation capabilities [34] Valuation and Forecast - The company's valuation is relatively stable, with a median PE (FY1) of 12.6X from 2024 to 2023 [21] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.62, 0.67, and 0.72 yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [37] - The company's dividend yield is expected to be 6.9%, 7.5%, and 7.6% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [41]