SDIC Power(600886) 海通证券·2024-11-15 07:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Electric Power is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The introduction of social security strategic investment accelerates the development of clean energy and enhances the stability of the capital market. Guotou Electric Power is a comprehensive power generation company under the National Development Investment Group, sharing hydropower development rights in the Yalong River Basin with Chuan Investment Energy [4] - As of Q3 2024, the company has an installed capacity of 42.54 million kilowatts, with hydropower, thermal power, and wind/solar power capacities of 21.30 million, 13.20 million, and 8.03 million kilowatts respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-3 2023/24 was 6.7 billion and 6.6 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 64% and 9% [4] - The company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the social security fund in September 2024, planning to raise 7 billion yuan at a price of 12.72 yuan per share, corresponding to the issuance of 550 million shares, approximately 7.4% of the total share capital before issuance [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Guotou Electric Power's stock performance has shown a decline of 2.92% compared to the Haidong Composite Index, with a relative performance of -14.3% over the past month [2][3] Hydropower and Renewable Energy - The Yalong River hydropower segment has seen an increase in electricity generation, with 79.9 billion kWh and 71.5 billion kWh for hydropower and Yalong River respectively, year-on-year growth of 15.6% and 16.1%. The on-grid electricity prices have decreased by 2.2% and 1.9% respectively [5] - The company is advancing the integrated layout of hydropower, wind, and solar energy, with a planned installed capacity of 78 million kilowatts in the Yalong River hydropower and wind-solar base [5] Thermal Power - The company focuses on the construction of clean and efficient large thermal power units, with 64% of its operational thermal power being million-kilowatt units. The profitability of the thermal power segment is supported by capacity pricing [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 7.5 billion, 8.5 billion, and 9.5 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.00, 1.14, and 1.28 yuan. The estimated dividend yield for 2024 is 3.2% [7] - The reasonable value range for the company is estimated to be between 17.10 and 19.38 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 15-17 times for 2025 [7][14] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 56.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3%. The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 6.71 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 64.3% [8][15] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 36.1% in 2023 to 40.6% by 2026 [15] Shareholder Returns - According to the company's shareholder return plan, it aims to distribute at least 55% of the annual distributable profits in cash from 2024 to 2026 [7]