Gemdale(600383) Haitong Securities·2024-11-15 07:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue and gross profit margin have declined significantly, impacting its operating performance. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 41.003 billion yuan, down 21.59% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.41 billion yuan, a staggering decline of 5978.05% year-on-year. The gross profit margin was reported at 12.57%, a decrease of 4.38 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 [5][9]. - The report indicates that the company continues to recognize asset impairment, with a provision of 514.13 million yuan in the third quarter of 2024, including credit loss provisions of 242.71 million yuan and inventory write-down provisions of 271.42 million yuan. This follows a significant impairment provision of 2.92525 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [5][6]. - The report notes that the industry policy bottom has emerged, with expectations for sales improvement. The company recorded a cumulative contracted area of 3.593 million square meters and a contracted amount of 52.81 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, down 46.29% and 56.69% year-on-year, respectively. However, recent policy support from the central government is expected to positively influence future sales [6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total assets of 330.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.51% from the end of 2023, and net assets attributable to shareholders of 61.475 billion yuan, down 5.51% [5][10]. - The asset-liability ratio stood at 67.61%, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points from the end of 2023 [5][10]. - The report forecasts a continued decline in revenue, with projected operating income of 75.978 billion yuan for 2024, down 22.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of -1.434 billion yuan [8][12]. Valuation - The report suggests that the current net profit does not reflect the potential future profitability changes, and with policy support and asset prices stabilizing, there is room for asset price recovery. The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between 7.03 and 8.44 yuan per share, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.5-0.6 [6][12].