科华数据：Q3储能业务承压，减值计提影响利润

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 was 5.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 238 million yuan, down 46.53% year-on-year. The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to impairment losses [4] - The company has seen an increase in capital expenditures from major internet and telecom operators in Q3, which has positively impacted market prices and overall service profits. The revenue share from data center services has increased [4] - The company is facing challenges in the domestic market due to price wars in the energy storage sector but is actively expanding overseas, particularly in the US and Europe, while also targeting emerging markets [5] - The company forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 445 million, 600 million, and 733 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96, 1.30, and 1.59 yuan. The estimated valuation range for 2024 is between 33.72 and 38.53 yuan based on a PE ratio of 35-40 times [5] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2023, the company reported a revenue of 5.393 billion yuan, with a net profit of 238 million yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.663 billion yuan, down 21.02% year-on-year and 34.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 12 million yuan, down 89.92% year-on-year and 91.82% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 8.141 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.538 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.2% [12] - The gross profit margin is expected to decline from 27.3% in 2023 to 22.6% in 2026, reflecting increased competition and cost pressures [12] Product Segment Analysis - The renewable energy segment is expected to see revenue growth of 0%, 35%, and 30% from 2024 to 2026, with a gross margin decreasing from 21.94% in 2023 to 16.5% in 2026 [8][10] - The IDC services segment is projected to grow by 5%, 10%, and 10% over the same period, with a gross margin of around 25% [8][10] - The data center products segment is also expected to grow by 5%, 10%, and 10%, maintaining a gross margin of approximately 36% [8][10]