科锐国际：灵活用工保持高增速，猎头重回正增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for KeRui International (300662 SZ) with a target price of 22 45 yuan per share, based on a 24x PE multiple for 2024 [4] Core Views - KeRui International achieved revenue of 8 52 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18 8%, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 11 0% to 140 million yuan [1] - The flexible staffing business continued its high growth, with revenue increasing by 20 6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, while the headhunting business returned to positive growth in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 2 3% [2] - The company's gross margin and net margin slightly declined due to the increasing proportion of flexible staffing, with the gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 at 6 8%, down 1 0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The number of flexible staffing personnel increased significantly, with net additions of 700, 2,500, and 3,700 in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024, respectively, compared to negative growth in 2023 [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 11 29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15 4%, and net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 201 million yuan, with a growth rate of 0 2% [3] - The company's EBITDA for 2024 is forecasted to be 385 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20 3%, and the EPS is expected to be 1 02 yuan per share [3] - The ROE for 2024 is projected to be 10 0%, slightly lower than the 11 2% in 2023, while the net profit margin is expected to be 2 0%, down from 2 3% in 2023 [3] Business Operations - The number of mid-to-high-level management and technical positions recommended by the company increased by 23 7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with technical R&D positions accounting for 66 52% of the total in-service personnel, an increase of 6 23 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's flexible staffing business saw a cumulative number of 361,000 person-times and 42,400 in-service personnel by Q3 2024, with year-on-year increases of 17 0% and 20 8%, respectively [2] Valuation and Projections - The company's PE ratio for 2024 is estimated at 20 19x, with a projected decrease to 15 29x in 2025 and 12 23x in 2026 [3] - The EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024 is forecasted to be 10 15x, decreasing to 7 85x in 2025 and 6 56x in 2026 [3]