XINJI ENERGY(601918) 广发证券·2024-11-15 08:29Investment Rating - The report gives Xinji Energy a "Buy" rating with a target price of 10.50 CNY per share, based on a 25-year PE multiple of 11x [2][3] Core Views - Xinji Energy's Q3 non-GAAP net profit increased by 17% QoQ, with significant improvement in profitability and stability over the past three years [1][6] - The company's coal and power businesses contributed 72% and 28% to net profit respectively in 2023, with coal business benefiting from high long-term contract ratio and rising price levels [1] - The power business is expected to double its installed capacity in the next 2 years, enhancing the company's coal-power integration advantage [1][14] Coal Business - Xinji Energy operates 5 coal mines with a total capacity of 23.5 million tons/year, and is awaiting approval for the Yangcun Mine (5 million tons/year) [1][11] - The company's coal sales are mainly through long-term contracts, with stable prices and strong cost control (330-350 CNY/ton) over the past three years [1][12] - In Q3 2024, coal production decreased by 6.2% YoY due to safety supervision, but coal revenue per ton increased by 3.1% due to higher calorific value [12][13] Power Business - The company's installed power generation capacity reached 4.6GW, including 3.34GW of controlled capacity and 1.29GW of equity capacity [1][14] - Power generation and sales increased by 16.1% and 16.2% YoY respectively in Q3 2024, driven by strong demand in Anhui province and the commissioning of Lixin Phase II power plant [14][15] - The company plans to double its installed capacity in the next 2 years with the completion of new power plants in Shangrao, Chuzhou, and Liuan [1][14] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Xinji Energy achieved a net profit of 1.82 billion CNY, down 5.0% YoY, with Q3 net profit increasing by 5.9% YoY and 12.2% QoQ [6][8] - The company's revenue growth is expected to be 0.7%, 4.4%, and 14.0% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with EPS projected at 0.87, 0.95, and 1.00 CNY/share [2][20] - ROE is forecasted to decline from 15.6% in 2023 to 12.4% in 2026, while EV/EBITDA is expected to increase from 5.08x in 2023 to 6.16x in 2026 [2][30] Industry Outlook - The coal-power industry has shown stable profitability, with combined ROE of coal and power sectors maintaining at 8-13% over the past two decades [16][18] - In 2023, the power sector's profit increased to 548.8 billion CNY, while coal sector's profit decreased to 742.9 billion CNY due to lower coal prices and higher long-term contract ratios [16]