Shanghai Jahwa(600315) 广发证券·2024-11-15 08:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.82 CNY per share based on a 25x PE for 2025 [4][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.477 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 163 million CNY, down 58.72% year-on-year [1][2]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 1.156 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.93%, with a net loss of 75 million CNY, marking a significant drop of 180.85% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is undergoing strategic adjustments, including a shift from distributor to self-operated sales channels and reducing inventory in department stores, which has impacted both revenue and profit [2][3]. Revenue Summary - In Q3 2024, the revenue breakdown was as follows: personal care products 530 million CNY (46.16%), cosmetics 95 million CNY (8.25%), innovative products 150 million CNY (13.13%), and overseas products 370 million CNY (32.46%) [2]. - The average prices for these segments showed mixed results, with personal care products increasing by 4.7% year-on-year, while cosmetics decreased by 0.36%, innovative products dropped by 19.34%, and overseas products increased by 0.53% [2]. Profitability Summary - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 54.49%, down 3.24 percentage points year-on-year. Excluding the impact of strategic adjustments, the gross margin for domestic operations increased by 1.1 percentage points [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was -6.51%, a decrease of 12.89 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 360 million CNY, 480 million CNY, and 600 million CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][4]. - The expected revenue growth rates are projected at 2.0% for 2024, 9.2% for 2025, and 9.8% for 2026 [3][4].