HONGLU(002541) 国泰君安·2024-11-15 08:30Investment Rating - Maintain Overweight rating with a target price of 23.8 yuan, corresponding to a 2024 PE of 19x [2] - The target price remains unchanged despite a downward revision in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.26/1.40/1.54 yuan from the previous 1.92/2.15/2.39 yuan [2] Core Views - The company's Q1-Q3 2024 steel structure production increased by 0.58% YoY to 3.25 million tons, with Q3 production up 1.42% YoY to 1.14 million tons [2] - New contract signings for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 4.34% YoY to 21.9 billion yuan, with Q3 signings down 3.74% YoY to 7.57 billion yuan [2] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 declined by 6.37% YoY to 15.887 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping 26.29% YoY to 655 million yuan [2] - The company is expected to reach a production capacity of 5.2 million tons by the end of 2024, with a focus on improving intelligent manufacturing to reduce costs [2] Industry Outlook - According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the steel structure industry, China's steel structure usage is expected to reach 140 million tons by 2025 and 200 million tons by 2035, accounting for 15% and 25% of crude steel production, respectively [2] - The National People's Congress approved a 6 trillion yuan debt limit to replace local government implicit debt, with 2 trillion yuan allocated annually from 2024 to 2026, which is expected to benefit the industry [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 21.927 billion yuan, a 6.8% decline YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to drop 26.3% YoY to 869 million yuan [3] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 1.26 yuan, down from 1.71 yuan in 2023A [3] - ROE for 2024E is expected to be 8.8%, down from 12.8% in 2023A [3] Production and Orders - Steel structure production for Q1-Q3 2024 increased by 0.58% YoY to 3.25 million tons, with Q3 production up 1.42% YoY to 1.14 million tons [2] - New contract signings for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 4.34% YoY to 21.9 billion yuan, with Q3 signings down 3.74% YoY to 7.57 billion yuan [2] Valuation and Peers - The company's 2024E PE is 13.10x, compared to peers like Jinggong Steel Structure (11.3x) and Hangxiao Steel Structure (26.9x) [15] - The company's 2024E EPS is 1.26 yuan, higher than peers such as Jinggong Steel Structure (0.27 yuan) and Hangxiao Steel Structure (0.11 yuan) [15]