北方国际：Q3归母净利保持高增，毛利率大幅改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.05 yuan, based on a 12x PE multiple for 2024 [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 results show a 16% YoY increase in net profit attributable to the parent company, reaching 218 million yuan, with a significant improvement in gross margin to 16.2%, up 4.1 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's resource and power business growth logic remains strong, with continued expansion in power investment and construction operations along the "Belt and Road" countries [2] - The company's mining services business is progressing smoothly, and the increase in electricity prices in Croatia is expected to improve the profitability of the wind power project [2] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.12 billion yuan, a 3% YoY decrease, while net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 10% YoY to 758 million yuan [2] - The company's operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was a net outflow of 457 million yuan, an increase of 208 million yuan compared to the same period last year, mainly due to increased cash outflows for various engineering projects [2] - The company's financial expense ratio increased by 1.86 percentage points YoY, primarily due to reduced exchange gains from currency fluctuations [2] Business Operations - The company signed new project contracts worth 790 million USD in Q1-Q3 2024, a 61% YoY decrease, with Q3 contracts amounting to 60 million USD [2] - Key projects include the Bangladesh coal-fired power plant, which is 96.1% complete as of Q3 2024, and the Mongolia mining integration project, which produced 33.36 million cubic meters of ore in Q1-Q3 2024 [2] - The Croatia wind power project generated 268 GWh of electricity in Q1-Q3 2024, with Q3 electricity prices in Croatia averaging 103 EUR/MWh, a 43% increase QoQ and 9% YoY [2] Profit Forecast - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.035 billion yuan in 2024, 1.397 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.639 billion yuan in 2026, representing YoY growth rates of 12.7%, 35.0%, and 17.3% respectively [3] - The company's EPS is forecasted to be 1.03 yuan in 2024, 1.39 yuan in 2025, and 1.64 yuan in 2026 [3] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 10.7% in 2024 to 13.2% in 2026, while the EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 5.90x in 2024 to 3.00x in 2026 [3]