Shede Spirits (600702) 首创证券·2024-11-15 09:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company is focusing on long-term value by actively reducing speed and improving quality, with a revenue target of 7 billion yuan and expected stable growth in the future [2][3] - The third quarter performance showed a slight slowdown, highlighting strategic allocation opportunities for the medium to long term [3] - The company is undergoing a volume control adjustment, which continues to pressure short-term performance, particularly in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment due to weak demand [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 1.19 billion yuan, a decline of 30.92% year-on-year, with a net profit of 78 million yuan, down 79.23% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 63.66%, a decrease of 10.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to inventory control measures [3] Market Strategy - The company is enhancing marketing efforts for terminal consumer groups and actively controlling volume to stabilize prices, which is expected to gradually release channel inventory pressure [3] - The company aims to balance product offerings across various price segments, focusing on key products like "Pinnacle" and "T68" for continued growth [3] - The board approved a share repurchase plan with an expected amount of 100 to 200 million yuan, indicating confidence in future development [3] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is adjusted to 870 million yuan, 960 million yuan, and 1.08 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -51.0%, +10.7%, and +12.5% [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 31, 28, and 25 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3]