Investment Rating - The report assigns an Overweight rating to the company with a target price of 57.00 CNY, compared to the current price of 42.04 CNY [4] Core Views - The company has transitioned from a single e-commerce operation model to a full-chain and full-ecosystem e-commerce service provider, with a strong foothold in the apparel sector and expansion into new consumer categories like Jellycat [2] - The company's brand incubation business is expected to drive a second growth curve, with significant potential for future growth [2] - Revenue and net profit have shown strong recovery, with revenue growing at a CAGR of 25.9% from 2018 to 2023, and net profit growing at a CAGR of 3.9% over the same period [9] - The company's gross and net profit margins have improved, with gross margin reaching 51.1% and net margin at 8.5% in the first three quarters of 2024 [9] Business Model and Growth Drivers - The company has evolved from a pure e-commerce operator to a comprehensive e-commerce service provider, covering apparel, health, pet food, and personal care categories [9] - The company's equity structure is concentrated, with the founder and co-founder holding approximately 38.8% of the shares [9] - The proportion of revenue from e-commerce operations has decreased from 76.9% in 2017 to 51.4% in H1 2024, while brand incubation revenue has increased from 16.7% to 38.5% over the same period [9] - The company has established long-term partnerships with major brands like Skechers and ECCO, solidifying its position in the apparel sector [9] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from 306 million CNY in 2018 to 967 million CNY in 2023, with a CAGR of 25.9% [9] - Net profit grew from 43 million CNY in 2018 to 52 million CNY in 2023, with a CAGR of 3.9% [9] - In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue and net profit grew by 23.5% and 170%, respectively [9] - The company's gross margin improved to 51.1% in the first three quarters of 2024, while the net margin reached 8.5% [9] Industry Outlook - The domestic e-commerce industry is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, with the brand e-commerce service market expected to grow from 407.7 billion CNY in 2023 to 586.2 billion CNY in 2028, at a CAGR of 7.5% [9] - The rise of new consumer brands, such as Jellycat, is expected to drive growth, with Jellycat's domestic sales expected to double in 2024 [9] - The company has added Jellycat as an online operation partner in H1 2024, which is expected to catalyze the launch of more new consumer projects [9] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong brand presence, particularly in the apparel sector, with long-term partnerships with major brands like Skechers and ECCO [9] - The company has built a robust data system and developed proprietary software, enabling it to provide high-quality, full-chain services to clients [9] - The company has established a comprehensive service ecosystem, including cross-platform integration and deep business exploration, which is expected to drive its second growth curve [9] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.63, 2.17, and 2.70 CNY, with growth rates of 189%, 33%, and 25%, respectively [9] - The company's target price is set at 57.00 CNY, based on a PE valuation of 42x for 2024 [26] - The PS valuation method suggests a target price of 47.87 CNY, with a PS multiple of 3.5x for 2024 [29]
青木科技首次覆盖报告：深耕电商服务，拓展品牌孵化