证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 商贸零售 商社板块 2025 年四季度前瞻 1. 零售板块四季度前瞻： （1）黄金珠宝：①老凤祥：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速-15%至 5%。 ②周大生：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速 15%至 30%。③潮宏基：公司 预告 2025 年归母净利润 4.36 亿-5.33 亿元同比增 125%-175%，测算 25Q4 归母净利润 1.2-2.2 亿元；2025 年底潮宏基珠宝门店总数 1668 家， 年内净增 163 家。④菜百股份：公司预告 2025 年归母净利润 10.6 亿-12.3 亿，对应 25Q4 归母净利增速 150%-254%。⑤豫园股份：公司预告 25Q4 归母亏损 43.12 亿元，24 年同期亏损 10.3 亿元，主因公司持续瘦身健体， 对部分存在减值迹象的房地产项目及商誉等计提资产减值准备。 （2）潮玩：名创优品：我们预计 25Q4 收入增速 25%-30%，经调整 OP 同比双位数增长，经调整归母净利增速 10%至 20%。 （3）商超百货：①重庆百货：公司预告 2025 年归母净利 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 为什么我们特别看好 AI 电商 AI 应用研究感思录（三） TMT 及中小盘/传媒 近期 AI 应用呈现井喷式发展，各种 AI 应用层出不穷，比如阿里的千问，比如 KIMI 的更新，又比如 CLAWDBOT，但我们近期还是建议投资者重点关注 AI 电商，我们非常看好 AI 电商的发展。原因如下： ❑ 风险提示：AI 技术发展不及预期、商业化存在不确定性、政策监管风险。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 160 | 3.1 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2248.3 | 2.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2067.2 | 2.0 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 18.8 22.4 39.3 相对表现 17.6 9.0 16.0 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 传媒 沪深300 相关报告 1、《AI 应用研究感思录（二）—一"问" 激起千层浪，超级 AI 入口 ...

证券之星消息，1月29日互联网电商板块较上一交易日上涨0.47%，壹网壹创领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4157.98，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于14300.08，下跌0.3%。互联网电商板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300792 | 壹网壹创 | 42.68 | 5.88% | 31.03万 | | 13.49 乙 | | 600365 | ST通葡 | 3.07 | 2.33% | 9.05万 | | 2751.93万 | | 301001 | 凯淳股份 | 36.39 | 1.65% | 11.78万 | | 4.34亿 | | 301110 | 青木科技 | 81.21 | 1.61% | 8.76万 | | 7.34亿 | | 300592 | 华凯易佰 | 13.85 | 1.54% | 32.71万 | | 4.63亿 | | 002315 | 焦点科技 | 52.74 | 1.27% | 14.12万 | | 7.59亿 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecast of Qingmu Technology meets expectations, with a focus on the growth of its own brands and AI catalysis [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 118-136 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 30%-50% [1] - In Q4 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 38-56 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 111%-211% [1] Group 2: Business Development - The rapid growth of self-owned brand incubation has established a complete business model and validated its capabilities [1] - The company's basic operations in agency services maintain steady growth, with a strong competitive advantage in the large apparel sector, while also expanding into categories like trendy toys and pet food [1] - The company serves brands including Skechers, Pop Mart, and Jellycat [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Attention will be given to the new acquisition of the self-owned brand Noremega in 2026 [1] - The technology solutions and consumer operation services are well-equipped with products, scenarios, and tools, positioning the company to capitalize on the GEO trend [1]

行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2026 年 01 月 27 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 预计 25 年品牌端稳中有进，上下游边际改善 看好 ——化妆品医美行业 25 年业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 化妆品医美板块：需求端增长同比提速，2025 年化妆品社零增速跑赢大盘。25 年全年 社会消费品零售总额合计 50.1 万亿元，同比增长 3.7%，其中 25 年限额以上化妆品类 零售额合计 4653 亿元，同比增长 5.1%，跑赢社零大盘 1.4pct。具体到 25Q4，化妆品 社零增速高达 9.9%，增速明显高于前三个季度，再次印证双十一大促对美妆的带动， 以及围绕 ...

证券之星消息，1月27日互联网电商板块较上一交易日上涨0.73%，凯淳股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4139.9，上涨0.18%。深证成指报收于14329.91，上涨0.09%。互联网电商板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日互联网电商板块主力资金净流入1.81亿元，游资资金净流入1.2亿元，散户资金 净流出3.01亿元。互联网电商板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301001 凯淳股份 | | -7014.40万 | 11.26% | -3089.59万 | -4.96% | -3924.80万 | -6.30% | | 300592 华凯易佰 | | 6546.43万 | 12.72% | 871.55万 | 1.69% | -7417.99万 | -14.42% | | 301110 青木科技 | | 5552.27万 | 7.95% | 3825.61万 | 5. ...

三维通信：共同设立私募股权基金 紫金矿业：拟以280亿元收购联合黄金100%股权 1月27日，紫金矿业(601899)发布公告称，公司控股的紫金黄金国际有限公司拟以44加元/股的价格，收 购在多伦多证券交易所和纽约证券交易所两地上市的Allied Gold Corporation（简称"联合黄金"）全部已 发行的普通股，收购对价共计约55亿加元（约合人民币280亿元）。联合黄金的核心资产包括在产的马 里Sadiola金矿、科特迪瓦金矿综合体（含Bonikro和Agbaou金矿），以及将于2026年下半年建成投产的 埃塞俄比亚Kurmuk金矿。截至2024年底，联合黄金拥有金资源量533吨，平均品位1.48克/吨；联合黄金 2023、2024年分别产金10.7吨、11.1吨；预计2025年产金11.7~12.4吨；依托Sadiola项目改扩建及Kurmuk 项目建成投产，预计2029年产金将提升至25吨。 海科新源：签署长期合作协议 1月27日，海科新源(301292)发布公告称，公司与深圳市比亚迪锂电池有限公司（简称"比亚迪锂电 池"）签署长期合作协议暨湖北项目管输合作协议，协议有效期三年，在协议有效期内，海 ...

公司公告：预计2025年归母净利润为1.18–1.36亿元，同增30%–50%，#此前公司业绩指引约1.3亿、业绩基本符合 预期， 对应25Q4归母净利润0.38-0.56亿元，同增108%-207%；预计2025年扣非归母1.02-1.17亿元，同增30-50%， 对应25Q4归母净利润0.27-0.42亿元，同增72%-172%。 自有品牌增长稳健，外延并购贡献增量。 25年公司自有品牌珂蔓朵、意卡莉预计实现6亿收入，约翻倍增长，且重点考核利润控制增速；26年自有品牌端可 展望10亿收入，10%利润率。 青木科技25年业绩预告：业绩符合预期，具备自有品牌快速增长&AI概念等多重催化【东财新消费美护】 公司公告：预计2025年归母净利润为1.18–1.36亿元，同增30%–50%，#此前公司业绩指引约1.3亿、业绩基本符合 预期， 对应25Q4归母净利润0.38-0.56亿元，同增108%-207%；预计2025年扣非归母1.02-1.17亿元，同增30-50%， 对应25Q4归母净利润0.27-0.42亿元，同增72% 青木科技25年业绩预告：业绩符合预期，具备自有品牌快速增长&AI概念等多重催化【东财新 ...

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company Overview - **Company**: 青木科技 (Qingmu Technology) - **Industry**: Consumer Goods and AI Technology Key Financial Projections - **2025 Net Profit Forecast**: Expected to be between 118 million to 136 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 30% to 50% [1] - **Q4 2025 Net Profit**: Projected to be between 38 million to 56 million CNY, with a significant increase of 108% to 207% year-on-year [1] - **2025 Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Anticipated to be between 102 million to 117 million CNY, also reflecting a growth of 30% to 50% [1] - **Q4 2025 Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Expected to be between 27 million to 42 million CNY, with a growth of 72% to 172% year-on-year [1] Brand Growth and Acquisitions - **Self-owned Brands**: The brands 珂蔓朵 (Keman Duo) and 意卡莉 (Yikali) are projected to generate 600 million CNY in revenue for 2025, indicating a doubling in growth [2] - **Future Projections**: For 2026, self-owned brand revenue is expected to reach 1 billion CNY with a profit margin of 10% [2] - **Acquisitions**: The acquisition of Norway's VITALIS PHARMA and the domestic distribution rights for Noromega are expected to significantly contribute to profits, with Noromega projected to generate approximately 500 million CNY in revenue for 2025 at a 10% net profit margin [2] - **Performance Targets**: The performance targets for VITALIS are set to contribute 1.9 million CNY and 2.6 million CNY to net profit in 2027 and 2028, respectively [2] AI Integration and Efficiency - **Cost Reduction and Efficiency**: The company has a strong technical foundation in non-standard apparel and has developed tools like 青木啄木鸟 (Qingmu Woodpecker) and 青木小白 (Qingmu Xiaobai) to enhance operational efficiency [2] - **Partnership with Alibaba**: As an AI service provider for Alibaba, the company aims to leverage big data to improve model accuracy and advertising efficiency, thereby strengthening its competitive edge in the operational sector [2] - **Potential Catalysts**: With increasing attention on AI applications, companies with established AI capabilities are likely to experience further growth opportunities [2] Investment Recommendations - **Future Earnings Projection**: Estimated earnings for 2026 are around 240 million to 250 million CNY, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 30x [2] - **Stock Price Drivers**: Rapid progress in acquisitions, successful brand launches, and heightened interest in AI-related concepts are expected to drive stock price upward, suggesting investors should pay close attention [2]