特斯拉24Q3点评：利润端超预期，毛利拐点兑现，低成本车型预计明年量产

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for Tesla [1][2][3] Core Views - Tesla's 24Q3 revenue was $25.18 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus by 1.1%, with automotive revenue at $22.81 billion, below consensus by 1.2%, and renewable energy and storage revenue at $2.38 billion, below consensus by 6.5% [1] - 24Q3 gross margin was 19.8%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3.1 percentage points, with automotive gross margin at 20.1%, exceeding consensus by 2.9 percentage points [1] - Adjusted net profit was $2.51 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 21.4% [1] - Tesla plans to launch a more price-competitive vehicle in the first half of 2025, with expected automotive sales growth between 20% to 30% next year [3] - The company anticipates the mass production of Cybercab by 2026, targeting an annual production of at least 2 million units, potentially increasing to 4 million units [3] Production and Delivery - 24Q3 total deliveries were approximately 463,000 units, a year-over-year increase of 6%, with Model 3/Y deliveries at 440,000 units, up 5% year-over-year [2] - Total production increased by 9% year-over-year in 24Q3 [2] - Cybertruck achieved positive gross margin for the first time in 24Q3 [2] - Semi factory preparations are ongoing, with production planned to start by the end of 2025 [2] - Model Y became the best-selling vehicle in Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Switzerland in 2024, and the best-selling vehicle in Europe in September [2] Profitability - Automotive gross margin in 24Q3 was 20.1%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2] - Excluding credits, automotive gross margin was 17.1%, up 2.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2] Autonomous Driving - Tesla released version 12.5 of FSD (Supervised) in 24Q3, improving safety and comfort with increased data and training computation, a 5x increase in parameter count, and other architectural optimizations [3] - The company plans to expand FSD (Supervised) in Q4 and has deployed a 29,000 H100 cluster system at the Texas Gigafactory for training [3] Investment Recommendation - The report highlights Tesla's strong product cycle and FSD implementation as key focus areas for next year [3] - The long-term growth logic to be validated includes Robotaxi operations and Optimus testing [3] - The report remains optimistic about Tesla's medium to long-term investment value, especially after the resolution of short-term risks post-election [3]