NJBK(601009) 海通证券·2024-11-16 12:08Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Nanjing Bank (601009) [2] Core Views - Nanjing Bank demonstrates stable profitability with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.83% and a recovery in net interest margin (NIM) [4] - Corporate loans are the primary driver of loan growth [5] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a strong risk coverage ratio of 340.40% [5] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Nanjing Bank's revenue increased by 8.4% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 10.2% YoY [5] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue rose by 8.0% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.0% YoY [5] - The annualized ROE for Q3 2024 was 13.04%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points YoY [5] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio decreased by 0.55 percentage points YoY to 9.02% [5] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remained stable at 0.83% in Q3 2024, continuing a downward trend since the end of 2020 [5] - The special mention loan ratio increased by 7 basis points to 1.14% in Q3 2024 [5] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 4.62 percentage points to 340.40% in Q3 2024 [5] Net Interest Margin (NIM) - Net interest income grew by 8.7% YoY in Q3 2024, while it decreased by 1.4% YoY for the first three quarters of 2024 [5] - The estimated NIM for Q3 2024 was 1.10%, up by 6 basis points from Q2 2024 [5] Loan Growth - Total loans increased by 13.7% compared to the end of 2023, with corporate loans growing by 23.2% and personal loans increasing by 7.3% [5] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.79, 1.95, and 2.14 yuan, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing at 6.42%, 9.01%, and 9.16% [6] - The fair value range is estimated at 10.93-11.28 yuan, based on DDM and PB-ROE models [6] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 2.81%, 6.38%, and 7.15% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 6.42%, 9.01%, and 9.16% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [7] - The average ROE is forecasted to be 13.29%, 13.12%, and 13.47% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [7]