wanhua(600309) 天风证券·2024-11-16 13:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 147.6 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.67% to 11.1 billion yuan [1]. - The core polyurethane business continues to grow in sales volume, although the overall gross margin has declined due to product price pressures [1]. - The company is actively progressing on new projects, including the expansion of its MDI production capacity and international collaborations, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 542 billion yuan from polyurethane, 620 billion yuan from petrochemicals, and 200 billion yuan from fine chemicals and new materials, reflecting year-on-year increases of 8.3%, 19.5%, and 13.7% respectively [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 15.38%, down 1.38 percentage points from the previous year, with a quarterly gross margin of 13.4% [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow per share was 6.15 yuan, with a net profit margin of 9.59% for 2023 [3][9]. Future Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for the company are 14.9 billion yuan in 2024, 19.4 billion yuan in 2025, and 23.5 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [1][3]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 9.37% in 2024, 13.75% in 2025, and 9.44% in 2026 [9]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16.22 in 2024, decreasing to 10.29 by 2026 [3][9]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 1.92 in 2024 to 1.53 in 2026 [3][9]. - The enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is forecasted to be 8.21 in 2024, dropping to 5.84 by 2026 [3][9].