JCHX(603979) 华源证券·2024-11-17 02:04Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its dual-driven strategy of mining services and resource development [4][5]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a single mining service provider to a diversified mining group, leveraging its historical expertise in mining operations and management [21][22]. - The mining service business has shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% from 2018 to 2023, while the resource business is beginning to ramp up significantly [22][28]. - The company has established a strong order book, with total contracts amounting to 12 billion yuan, ensuring a solid profit base moving forward [50]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been engaged in mining operation management and engineering since its establishment in 1997, with a strong family legacy in the mining industry [21][22]. - It has developed a unique "service + resource" business model, which is expected to drive growth as it expands into resource development [21][22]. 2. Mining Service Operations - The mining service business is positively correlated with metal prices, leading to increased capital expenditures by mining companies [4][5]. - Mining output has steadily increased from 12.87 million tons in 2014 to 39.33 million tons in 2023, with a CAGR of 13% [28][32]. - The average unit profit for mining has risen to 34 yuan per ton in 2023, reflecting a 56% increase since 2014 [28][32]. 3. Resource Development - The company is actively developing mining resources, including a phosphate project in collaboration with a major fertilizer company and several copper mining projects in Africa and South America [4][10]. - The expected annual production from copper mines upon reaching full capacity is 111,400 tons, with significant profit potential as these projects come online [4][10][57]. - The company has a robust resource base, with significant reserves in both phosphate and copper, ensuring long-term growth prospects [57]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.463 billion yuan, 2.058 billion yuan, and 2.339 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.08X, 12.15X, and 10.69X [5][9]. - The average P/E ratios for comparable companies in the industry are higher, indicating a favorable valuation for the company given its growth potential [5][9].