wsdl(600995) Haitong Securities·2024-11-17 02:21Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - Increased water supply has boosted profits, and the impact of capacity price adjustments has been eliminated. For the first three quarters of 2023, revenue reached 4.519 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.12%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 1.045 billion, up 27.62% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.608 billion, reflecting a 33.33% year-on-year increase, and net profit was 419 million, a significant increase of 231.49% year-on-year, primarily due to increased water supply at peak regulation hydropower plants [5][6]. - The company has a robust project pipeline in pumped storage, with installed capacity remaining stable at 10.28 million kilowatts as of Q3 2024. Revenue from pumped storage for the first three quarters was 3.08 billion, a slight decrease of 0.39% year-on-year, with a unit revenue of approximately 400 yuan per kilowatt [5][10]. - The new storage projects are benefiting from the commissioning of new power stations, with installed capacity for new storage reaching 423,800 kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 282%. Revenue from new storage for the first three quarters was 209 million, up 210% year-on-year [6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2023, the company reported revenue of 4.519 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.12%, and a net profit of 1.045 billion, up 27.62% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 1.608 billion, with a net profit of 419 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 231.49% [5][6]. - The company forecasts net profits of 1.312 billion, 1.454 billion, and 1.775 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.41, 0.45, and 0.56 [7][8]. Revenue Projections - The report estimates revenues for pumped storage to be 4.112 billion, 4.352 billion, and 5.192 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a projected year-on-year growth of 5.84% in 2025 and 19.30% in 2026 [12]. - New storage revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 263 million, 355 million, and 479 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 182.8% and 35% for the following years [12]. Market Comparison - The company is compared with peers, showing a projected PE ratio of 35-40 times for 2024, indicating a fair value range of 14.37 to 16.43 yuan per share [7][14].