晶澳科技：成本快速下降，Q3业绩扭亏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with adjusted net profit expectations for 2024/2025/2026 at -12.94/28.85/43.23 billion yuan respectively [3] Core Views - The company has completed the ramp-up of its TOPcon production capacity, significantly improving production efficiency and cost structure [2] - N-type battery mass production conversion efficiency has reached 26.5%, with N-type module shipments accounting for 75% of total shipments in Q3 2024 [2] - The company's Q3 2024 gross margin improved to 8.67%, up 5.62 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2] - The company repurchased 26.95 million shares, representing 0.81% of total shares, demonstrating confidence in its future [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 16.99 billion yuan, with net profit turning positive at 390 million yuan after two consecutive quarters of losses [6] - 2024E revenue is projected at 73.88 billion yuan, with a net loss of 1.29 billion yuan, expected to recover to 28.85 billion yuan net profit in 2025 [4] - 2026E revenue is forecasted at 106.17 billion yuan, with net profit reaching 43.23 billion yuan [4] - ROE is expected to improve from -4.1% in 2024E to 11.2% in 2026E [4] Production and Operations - The company's module production capacity is expected to reach 100GW by the end of 2024, with silicon wafer and battery capacity covering 80% of module capacity [2] - N-type battery capacity reached 57GW by Q3 2024 [2] - Total battery and module shipments exceeded 57GW in the first three quarters of 2024, with overseas shipments accounting for 52.4% [2] Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the photovoltaic industry with its advanced N-type technology and global layout [2] - The company's cost structure has significantly improved due to scale effects from increased production and sales [2]