Huafon Spandex(002064) 华创证券·2024-11-17 07:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 10.5 CNY, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][2]. Core Views - The company's performance has been pressured by the narrowing price spread of adipic acid, despite a stable price spread for spandex. The company is actively enhancing its integrated supply chain layout to strengthen its market position [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability for the spandex segment as industry concentration increases, supported by the company's scale and integration advantages [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20.373 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.015 billion CNY, up 4.46% year-on-year. However, Q3 saw a revenue decline of 6.11% year-on-year and a net profit drop of 12.88% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 13.69%, reflecting a decrease of 0.58% year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.53%, down 0.55% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity for PTMEG, a key raw material for spandex, by investing an additional 800 million CNY to increase the capacity from 120,000 tons to 240,000 tons per year [1]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 2.760 billion CNY, 3.469 billion CNY, and 3.972 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.4%, 25.7%, and 14.5% [1][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.56 CNY, 0.70 CNY, and 0.80 CNY, respectively [1][5].