Three Squirrels(300783) 国盛证券·2024-11-17 07:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Three Squirrels (300783 SZ) [4] Core Views - Three Squirrels is undergoing a significant transformation in its retail strategy, focusing on high-end cost performance and integrated development of manufacturing, branding, and retailing [2] - The company is actively participating in the retail industry's transformation, leveraging its supply chain and brand strength to expand its offline distribution channels [2] - Three Squirrels has achieved a 285% YoY increase in distribution revenue in October, with 70% of distributors growing over 60% [2] - The company aims to increase distribution revenue by 800 million yuan during the upcoming Spring Festival season, focusing on popular products like melon seeds and gift sets [2] - Three Squirrels is building a robust supply chain, including the world's largest nut processing cluster and multiple domestic and international production bases [2] - The company is expanding its product matrix, launching 30 new products in the past two months, and plans to further enrich its offerings [2] - Three Squirrels is collaborating with distributors, allocating 100 million yuan in channel expenses to support market expansion [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 45 2% in 2024, reaching 10 33 billion yuan, followed by 30 0% growth in 2025 and 20 6% in 2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 89 3% in 2024, reaching 420 million yuan, with further growth of 36 6% in 2025 and 25 4% in 2026 [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1 04 yuan in 2024 to 1 42 yuan in 2025 and 1 78 yuan in 2026 [2] - ROE is expected to improve significantly, from 15 1% in 2024 to 20 7% in 2026 [2] Industry Trends - The retail industry is undergoing a profound transformation, with a shift towards discount retailing and community-based stores [2] - Three Squirrels is positioning itself to capitalize on this trend by expanding into discount supermarkets and community snack stores [2] - The company's acquisition of Ai Snacks and Ai Discount is expected to enhance its market presence and supply chain capabilities [2] - The report highlights the potential for discount retailing in China, driven by increasing chain store penetration and rational consumer behavior [2] Operational Highlights - Three Squirrels has built a strong supply chain, including seven factories and 17 production lines, expected to be operational by the end of the year [2] - The company has established a global nut processing cluster and is expanding its production capabilities for other snack categories [2] - Three Squirrels is leveraging its brand strength and supply chain capabilities to replicate its success in offline distribution [2]