BABA(09988) 浙商证券·2024-11-17 12:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [5][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 236.5 billion RMB in FY2Q2025, a year-over-year increase of 5.2%, which was 1.2% below consensus expectations. International commerce, local services, and other revenues exceeded expectations, while Taobao and Tmall commerce, as well as cloud intelligence revenues, met expectations. However, Cainiao and entertainment revenues fell short of expectations [1]. - Operating profit reached 35.2 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 5.0%, surpassing consensus expectations by 7.6%, primarily due to a reduction in non-cash equity incentive expenses [1]. - Adjusted EBITA was 40.6 billion RMB, down 5.3% year-over-year, which was 1.3% below consensus expectations, mainly due to increased investments in domestic and overseas e-commerce businesses [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit was 36.5 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 9.1%, but exceeded consensus expectations by 2.5%, largely due to significantly higher-than-expected investment income [1]. - The report indicates that the company is focusing on its core business and user engagement, which is expected to improve the competitive landscape. Although EBITA is under pressure in the short to medium term, there are signs of a recovery in profitability, and shareholder returns are becoming more visible [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 1,001.9 billion RMB, 1,105.3 billion RMB, and 1,205.3 billion RMB, respectively. Non-GAAP net profits are expected to be 151.7 billion RMB, 174.2 billion RMB, and 192.3 billion RMB for the same periods, corresponding to current price-to-earnings ratios of 10.1, 8.8, and 8.0 times [1][13]. Business Segment Performance - Taotian Group: Revenue for FY2Q2025 was 99 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, aligning with consensus expectations. Adjusted EBITA was 44.6 billion RMB, with a profit margin of 45.1%, slightly below expectations [1]. - International Commerce: Revenue reached 31.7 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 29.2%, exceeding consensus expectations by 1.2%. Retail business revenue grew by 35.0% [2]. - Local Services: Revenue was 17.7 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 13.8%, surpassing consensus expectations by 1.6%. The segment's losses narrowed significantly due to improved operational efficiency [3]. - Cainiao: Revenue was 24.6 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 8.0%, but fell short of expectations by 8.6% [4]. - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue was 29.6 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 7.1%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.7 billion RMB, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [11]. - Entertainment: Revenue was 5.7 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 1.5%, which was below expectations by 9.7% [12].