TENCENT(00700) 国海证券·2024-11-17 16:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1] Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2024 revenue reached 167.2 billion RMB, representing an 8% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase. Operating profit was 53.3 billion RMB, up 20% year-over-year and 5% quarter-over-quarter. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 53.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 47% year-over-year increase and a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase [1][11][18] - The gaming revenue accelerated with a 13% year-over-year growth, driven by both domestic (14%) and international (9%) markets. The deferred revenue reached a record high, indicating strong future revenue potential [30][31] - The marketing services business grew by 17% year-over-year, supported by demand for advertising on platforms like WeChat and mini-programs, demonstrating resilience in the advertising sector despite macroeconomic pressures [47][48] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 overall gross margin increased by 3.6 percentage points year-over-year, remaining stable quarter-over-quarter. Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 19% year-over-year, while Non-IFRS net profit increased by 33% to 59.8 billion RMB [18][22] - Free cash flow for the quarter was 58.5 billion RMB, significantly up from 40.4 billion RMB in the previous quarter, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [27] Business Segments Value-Added Services - Gaming revenue for Q3 2024 was 51.8 billion RMB, accounting for 31% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 13%. The deferred revenue balance reached 113.1 billion RMB, a 23% increase year-over-year [30][31] - The social network segment reported a 4% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by sales of virtual goods and subscription services [41] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue increased to 30 billion RMB, a 17% year-over-year growth, driven by demand for video ads and mini-programs [47] - The video account advertising revenue saw over 60% year-over-year growth, indicating strong demand and potential for further monetization [48] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services grew by 2% year-over-year to 53.1 billion RMB, with growth in wealth management services offsetting declines in payment services due to weak consumer spending [49] - The cloud business is expected to continue growing, supported by the launch of new AI models and improved operational efficiencies [49][52] Shareholder Returns - Tencent plans to repurchase over 100 billion HKD worth of shares in 2024, which, along with cash dividends, is expected to provide strong support for the stock price [53] Earnings Forecast - The report projects revenues for FY2024-2026 to be 654.5 billion RMB, 699.1 billion RMB, and 747.9 billion RMB respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits of 223.3 billion RMB, 251.8 billion RMB, and 275 billion RMB [54]