贵州茅台2024年三季报点评：业绩符合预期，直营环比加速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [5]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with total revenue reaching 123.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.91%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.83 billion yuan, up 15.04% year-on-year [6][7]. - In Q3 2024, total revenue was 39.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.13 billion yuan, an increase of 13.23% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company continues to see robust growth in its core product, Moutai liquor, with revenue of 101.13 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 15.88% year-on-year [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 123.12 billion yuan, with a net profit of 60.83 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 60.78 billion yuan, all showing positive year-on-year growth [6][7]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 39.67 billion yuan and net profit of 19.13 billion yuan, both reflecting year-on-year increases [6][7]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - Moutai liquor revenue for Q1-3 2024 was 101.13 billion yuan, up 15.88% year-on-year, while series liquor revenue was 19.39 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.36% [6][7]. - Direct sales in Q1-3 2024 reached 51.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.51%, with Q3 showing a significant growth of 23.5% [6][7]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 0.99 percentage points to 48.23%, while the gross margin fell by 0.44 percentage points to 91.23% [6][7]. - The company maintains strong pricing power and has implemented measures to stabilize prices, indicating a robust long-term growth outlook [8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 68.50 yuan and 75.94 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23 and 21 times [8].