ACCELINK(002281) 长江证券·2024-11-18 02:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 49.13 yuan as of November 13, 2024 [10] Core Viewpoints - Q3 revenue growth was driven by strong demand for 400G/800G optical modules in the data communication sector, with revenue reaching 2.27 billion yuan, up 50% YoY and 25% QoQ [5] - Gross margin improved to 25.1% in Q3, up 3.2 percentage points YoY and 2.3 percentage points QoQ, attributed to higher yield rates and increased self-supply of optical chips [6] - The company's optical chip products are among the top tier in China, with significant capacity and ongoing breakthroughs in high-end products like 50G VCSEL and 100G PAM4 EML chips [7] - Domestic cloud providers' Capex is at a cyclical low, with significant room for growth, especially driven by AI-related expansion [7] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Q3 net profit reached 255 million yuan, up 45% YoY and 94% QoQ, with non-GAAP net profit at 248 million yuan, up 75% YoY and 86% QoQ [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 800 million yuan, 1.206 billion yuan, and 1.607 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 29%, 51%, and 33% [8] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 49x, 32x, and 24x, respectively [8] Industry and Market Context - The global optical module market is experiencing strong growth, driven by AI and data center expansion, with the company well-positioned to benefit from this trend [7] - Domestic cloud providers are expected to increase Capex significantly, driven by AI and computing power expansion, which will further boost demand for the company's products [7] Operational Highlights - The company has accelerated production and material preparation, with fixed assets increasing by 16% QoQ and inventory up 34% QoQ in Q3 [5] - R&D expenses remained high at 8.7% of revenue in Q3, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and technological advancement [6]