Peacebird(603877) 广发证券·2024-11-18 02:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The major shareholder, Taiping Bird Group, plans to increase its stake in the company, demonstrating confidence in its future development. The total amount for the buyback is set between RMB 1.5 billion and RMB 3.0 billion over a period of six months [2]. - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 has been under pressure, with revenue of RMB 4.542 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 108 million, down 48.55% year-on-year. Revenue changes by category include women's wear (-11.55%), men's wear (-7.38%), Le Town (-31.48%), and children's wear (-16.75%) [2][3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 is 54.89%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased by 3.41 percentage points to 52.25% [3]. - There is optimism for improved performance in Q4 2024 due to a favorable shift in consumer policy and management restructuring aimed at enhancing operational efficiency [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at RMB 0.73, RMB 0.97, and RMB 1.21 respectively, with a target price of RMB 14.56 per share based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025 [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be RMB 7.247 billion, with a growth rate of -7.0%. The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 346 million, reflecting a decline of 17.9% [8]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at RMB 1.192 billion, with a corresponding EBITDA margin of 16.5% [8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be RMB 8.132 billion by the end of 2024, with total liabilities of RMB 3.463 billion [10].