wanhua(600309) 国海证券·2024-11-18 04:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is driven by technological innovation and operational excellence, positioning itself as a global chemical giant with high technology and low cost as its competitive advantages [2] - Short-term profitability is influenced by product price spreads, while long-term growth is driven by the company's ability to continuously evolve and launch milestone products [3] - The company's MDI business has proven its strength, and future projects will be key to its continued growth [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company's Q4 2024 price spread index averaged 76.01, up 2.76 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 13.27th percentile historically [4] - Q4 2024 net profit is estimated at 3.9 billion yuan, with the polyurethane segment's price spread index at 96.34, up 7.91 from Q3 2024 [4] - The petrochemical segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at a historical low of 60.57, down 4.79 from Q3 2024 [4] - The new materials segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 37.74, down 0.12 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 10.04th percentile historically [4] Project Progress - The company's 150,000-ton/year MDI technical renovation and expansion project in Fujian has completed its first environmental impact assessment [5] - The company's 10,000-ton/year vanillin industrial chain project has entered the environmental impact report review stage [6] - The company's 10,000-ton/year lithium iron phosphate project has completed its first environmental impact assessment [8] MDI Market Analysis - In October 2024, the average price of pure MDI was 18,248 yuan/ton, down 11.67% year-on-year and 0.90% month-on-month [9] - The price spread between pure MDI and coal/benzene was 12,193 yuan/ton in October 2024, down 13.49% year-on-year but up 2.71% month-on-month [9] - Overseas MDI plants have experienced frequent unplanned shutdowns, with domestic MDI exports increasing by 5.69% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024 [10] Downstream Demand - Domestic refrigerator production in September 2024 increased by 9.0% year-on-year, while exports rose by 9.7% [11] - Domestic car production in October 2024 increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with sales up 7.0% [11] - New housing construction area in September 2024 decreased by 22.2% year-on-year, while cumulative construction area fell by 12.2% [11] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at 190.6/230.5/261.8 billion yuan, with net profits of 15.0/20.4/26.0 billion yuan [12] - The company's PE ratios for 2024/2025/2026 are estimated at 16x, 12x, and 9x, respectively [14] Polyurethane Segment - The polyurethane segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 96.34, up 7.91 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 22.14th percentile historically [71] - The MDI price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 127.53, up 12.06 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 30.41th percentile historically [71] TDI Segment - The TDI price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 43.37, down 1.56 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 6.81th percentile historically [129]