华虹半导体：3Q24回顾：复苏之路有曲折

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$30.40, representing a potential upside of 31$23.20 [1][8][9] Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery path, with a 10% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in Q3 2024, although the price increase was less than expected [1][4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 exceeded expectations at 12.2%, compared to the forecast of 11.5% [1][4] - The management indicated strong growth in consumer electronics, but weakness persists in industrial and automotive sectors [1][4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted downwards to a 23% year-on-year growth, a reduction of 5% from previous estimates [1][5] Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of US$45 million in Q3 2024, which was 9$0.08, with subsequent years expected to rise to US$0.12 in 2025 and US$0.16 in 2026 [1][5] - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at US$2,003 million, with a projected increase to US$2,461 million in 2025 and US$2,953 million in 2026 [5][14] Valuation - The valuation approach is based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio, with a target P/B of 1.0 times and an estimated book value per share of US$3.87 for 2025 [8][9] - The report highlights that the company’s long-term return on equity (ROE) prospects remain challenging due to high capital expenditures and competitive pressures in traditional processes [8][9] Market Comparison - The company’s current market capitalization is approximately US$5.13 billion, with a P/E ratio of 38.7 for the next fiscal year [9] - Compared to peers, the company has a lower P/B ratio of 0.8, indicating potential undervaluation relative to its competitors [9]