Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Maoyan Entertainment (01896 HK) with a target price of 11 2 HKD [1][7] Core Views - Maoyan Entertainment is a leading online entertainment ticketing and content service provider in China with major shareholders including Tencent Meituan and Light Chaser Animation [1] - The company's main businesses are online entertainment ticketing (48% of 24H1 revenue) entertainment content services (47%) and advertising other services (5%) [1] - The film industry is expected to recover in 2025 with a new product cycle and Maoyan's film-related business is well-positioned to benefit from this recovery [1][6] - The company's live entertainment ticketing business is a new growth driver with 24H1 concert music festival GMV growing over 3x YoY [1][3] Business Analysis Online Entertainment Ticketing - The online movie ticketing market has stabilized into a "one super one strong" duopoly with Maoyan and Tao Piao Piao dominating [1][104] - Maoyan benefits from strong traffic advantages through its partnerships with Tencent and Meituan [1][115] - The movie ticketing business provides a stable cash flow base while live entertainment ticketing is a high-growth emerging segment [1][3] Entertainment Content Services - Maoyan has proven its film distribution capabilities ranking among the top 3 domestic distributors since 2021 [1][136] - The company's big data from its ticketing platform helps improve film selection and distribution success rates [1][136] - Future growth opportunities lie in deeper participation in film production and distribution including increasing investment shares and attempting more lead production projects [1][3] Industry Outlook - The Chinese film market is expected to recover in 2025 after a challenging 2024 with box office down 22% YoY to 38 4 billion RMB [1][72] - Both domestic and imported films are expected to enter a new release cycle in 2025 with major titles like "Nezha 2" and "Avatar 3" [1][80] - Long-term growth potential remains as China's per capita movie viewing frequency (1 23 times in 2019) is still far below the US level (3 8 times) [1][89] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 4 04 billion RMB in 2024 to 5 79 billion RMB in 2026 [1][7] - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 663 million RMB in 2024 to 1 07 billion RMB in 2026 [1][7] - The target valuation of 12 9 billion HKD is based on 13x 2025 PE [1][7]
猫眼娱乐：在线票务&娱乐内容龙头，电影主业拐点在即，现场演出贡献新增长