YTCO(600066) 长江证券·2024-11-18 07:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (600066 SH) [10] Core Views - Yutong Bus reported strong Q3 2024 results with revenue of 24 07 billion yuan (+27 0% YoY) and net profit of 2 43 billion yuan (+131 5% YoY) [2][5] - The company's profitability continues to improve with Q3 net profit margin reaching 9 8% (+2 4pct YoY) [7] - Yutong's domestic market shows steady growth in seating buses while the overseas market demonstrates strong profitability through globalization and premiumization strategies [2][8] - Battery cost reduction and economies of scale support sustained performance improvement [2][8] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q3 2024 revenue reached 7 74 billion yuan (-1 2% YoY -20 4% QoQ) due to seasonal factors and export order timing [6] - Q3 2024 net profit was 758 million yuan (+30 7% YoY) exceeding expectations [7] Profitability - Adjusted Q3 2024 gross margin was 23 9% (+0 8pct YoY) [7] - Q3 2024 operating expense ratio improved to 14 3% (-0 4pct YoY) [7] - Per vehicle profit reached 70 000 yuan in Q3 2024 (+18 000 yuan YoY) [7] Sales and Production - Q3 2024 total sales volume was 10 791 units (-3 1% YoY -15 9% QoQ) [6] - Export sales accounted for 2 590 units (-15 6% YoY) in Q3 2024 [6] - New energy export sales were 324 units showing a decline both YoY and QoQ [6] Market Outlook Domestic Market - Seating buses continue to drive sales growth [8] - Bus replacement cycle and new subsidy policies are expected to boost the market in H2 2024 [8] International Market - Yutong demonstrates global competitiveness in electric buses [8] - Overseas expansion contributes significantly to profit growth [8] Valuation and Projections - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts are 3 51 billion 4 21 billion and 5 02 billion yuan respectively [8] - 2024-2026 PE ratios are projected at 14 5X 12 1X and 10 2X [8] Dividend Policy - Yutong announced a Q3 2024 dividend of 0 5 yuan per share (45 5% payout ratio) [8] - Total dividend distribution reached 1 11 billion yuan with a dividend yield of 2 2% [8]