东航物流：航空货运龙头，享跨境物流景气

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting its position as a leader in air freight and benefiting from the high demand in cross-border logistics [4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant growth due to improving air freight supply and demand dynamics, with international air freight demand projected to grow substantially driven by cross-border e-commerce [4][11]. - The company's operational flexibility is notable, with a significant impact on net profit from price fluctuations in air freight [5][11]. - The report anticipates that the company's revenue and profitability will improve as it expands its logistics services and capitalizes on its strategic positioning in the market [5][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2004 and listed in 2021, is the first air freight company in China to go public. It operates a comprehensive logistics network that includes air express, integrated logistics solutions, and ground services, with revenue contributions of 44%, 44%, and 12% respectively in 2023 [1][59]. Air Freight Supply and Demand Improvement - Demand for air freight is expected to rise with economic recovery and cross-border e-commerce growth, with projected annual growth rates of 11.2%, 11.1%, and 9.9% from 2024 to 2026. International air freight demand is expected to grow at rates of 21.4%, 19.7%, and 16.0% during the same period [4][86]. - Supply growth is manageable, with a controlled increase in cargo aircraft capacity and a slower growth rate in passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity [4][86]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 30.5 billion, 36.7 billion, and 43.4 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.8x, 7.3x, and 6.2x [9][11]. - Revenue from air express services is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 111.7 billion, 129.5 billion, and 149.1 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, reflecting growth rates of 22.3%, 15.9%, and 15.1% respectively [10][11]. Strategic Positioning - The company is well-positioned in the logistics market, leveraging its resources to extend its supply chain services and enhance its cross-border e-commerce capabilities, which are anticipated to become a second growth curve for the company [5][11]. - The company has established a strong presence in key cargo station resources, which is expected to stabilize and enhance profitability as new cargo station projects come online [5][11].