恒立液压：稳步推进多元化战略，有望受益工程机械复苏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][17]. Core Views - The company is steadily advancing its diversification strategy and is expected to benefit from the recovery in the construction machinery sector. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 6.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.32%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.791 billion yuan, up 2.16% year-on-year. The performance shows steady growth [2][4]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 41.46%, and the net margin was 25.87%. The gross margin increased due to product mix optimization and economies of scale. However, in Q3 2024, the gross margin decreased to 41.03% due to the expansion of new businesses and increased personnel costs [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its non-excavation business and overseas markets, with overseas revenue growing by 15.29% year-on-year in the first half of 2024. The construction of a factory in Mexico is nearing completion, which will help further penetrate the Americas market [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders to be 2.580 billion yuan, with estimates for 2025 and 2026 at 3.028 billion yuan and 3.571 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 28, 24, and 20 times [2][3][21]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 9.552 billion yuan in 2024 to 12.930 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 17% [3][21]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 42% in 2024 and improve to 43% by 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is expected to be around 15.9% in 2024 and improve to 17.4% by 2026 [3][21].