天山铝业：一体化优质铝企，顺周期弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [2][10] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is an integrated high-quality aluminum enterprise with expected cyclical elasticity [2] - The company has a strong integrated aluminum industry chain, from bauxite mining to aluminum production and deep processing [4][29] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase due to the growth in the new energy sector, while supply constraints are becoming more apparent [5][10] Summary by Sections 1. Integrated Advantages of Tianshan Aluminum - The company has established a complete aluminum industry chain, including bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, high-purity aluminum, and aluminum foil production [4][29] - Tianshan Aluminum has a total share capital of 4,652 million shares, with a market capitalization of 38.8 billion yuan [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 54.93% and a net asset value per share of 5.68 yuan [3] 2. Demand Elasticity and Supply Constraints - Domestic electrolytic aluminum annual operating capacity reached 43.51 million tons by September 2024, nearing capacity limits [5] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow, driven by the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors [5][10] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will grow from 316.36 billion yuan in 2024 to 356.23 billion yuan in 2026 [10] 3. Aluminum Price and Valuation Premium - The report suggests that the aluminum price is likely to rise, leading to improved profitability and valuation for integrated aluminum enterprises [9][10] - The company's earnings are projected to increase significantly, with net profit expected to reach 5.73 billion yuan by 2026 [10] - The report highlights that the company's integrated production capacity provides a competitive edge in cost control and supply stability [9][10] 4. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 9.5 [10] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 316.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [6][10] - The report indicates a steady increase in gross margin, expected to reach 25.5% by 2026 [6][10]