恒瑞医药：创新药龙头新药加速商业化，代谢、自免管线进入收获期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for price appreciation over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in innovative pharmaceuticals, with a significant acceleration in the commercialization of new drugs. The metabolic and autoimmune pipelines are entering a harvest phase, contributing to revenue growth [4]. - The company has 17 innovative drugs already on the market, with nearly 10 new drug NDA applications under review. It is expected to launch 15 new drugs from 2024 to 2026, providing substantial growth momentum [4]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 26.94 billion, 31.23 billion, and 36.07 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 18.0%, 15.9%, and 15.5% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 6.08 billion, 7.04 billion, and 8.01 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 41.3%, 15.7%, and 13.9% respectively [4][7]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 20.19 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7%, and a net profit of 4.62 billion yuan, up by 33.0% [1]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 6.59 billion yuan, a 12.7% increase, and a net profit of 1.19 billion yuan, which is a modest increase of 1.9% [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses for the first three quarters were 4.55 billion yuan, with an R&D expense ratio of 22.5%, reflecting increased investment in late-stage clinical pipelines [1]. Market Data - As of November 18, 2024, the company's closing price was 47.20 yuan, with a year-to-date high of 57.53 yuan and a low of 35.51 yuan [1]. - The company has a circulating A-share market capitalization of 301.09 billion yuan [1]. Growth Potential - The innovative drug business is expected to grow rapidly, with several new drugs entering the medical insurance list, leading to increased hospital admissions [1]. - The company has multiple new drugs in late-stage clinical trials, including small molecules, ADCs, and bispecific antibodies, which are anticipated to contribute to future revenue [1][3].