Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's business structure optimization and refined management have driven rapid growth in performance [3] - The company's freight volume increased by 18.5% YoY in Q3 2024, with revenue growing by 21.2% YoY to 3.04 billion CNY [4] - Gross profit surged by 66.7% YoY to 480 million CNY, with gross margin improving by 4.3 percentage points to 15.6% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 27.9% YoY to 190 million CNY, with net margin increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 6.2% [4] Business Performance - The number of freight partners and agents increased by 14.3% YoY to approximately 32,000 in Q3 2024 [7] - Terminal customers served by the company and its partners exceeded 5.8 million in H1 2024, up from over 5 million in the same period last year [7] - Average freight volume per outlet increased by 3.7% YoY to 117 tons in Q3 2024 [7] - The company's product competitiveness improved, with average shipment time reduced to less than 64 hours in September 2024, down from 68 hours in H1 2024 [7] - The loss rate per 100,000 shipments decreased to 0.03 in Q3 2024 from 0.04 in H1 2024, and complaints per 100,000 shipments dropped to 39.2 from 51 [7] Business Structure Optimization - The company's freight structure continued to optimize, with 0-70kg mini parcels growing by 37.3% YoY, 70-300kg small LTL (Less Than Truckload) growing by 22.6% YoY, and 300kg+ large LTL growing by 6.6% YoY in Q3 2024 [10] - The average weight per shipment decreased from 109kg in H1 2022 to 81kg in Q3 2024, reflecting significant optimization in freight structure [10] Cost Management and Profitability - The company reduced 55 less efficient small distribution centers in 2023 and optimized its fleet management, leading to a significant decrease in core costs [13] - Unit trunk line cost decreased from 0.317 CNY/kg in Q3 2023 to 0.297 CNY/kg in Q3 2024, and unit distribution center cost dropped from 0.168 CNY/kg to 0.140 CNY/kg [13] - The company's gross margin reached 15.6% in Q3 2024, up 4.2 percentage points YoY [13] - Management expense ratio remained low, with Q3 2024 at 7.3%, down from 9.9% in H1 2022 [14] Strategic Focus - The company is implementing the "Five Best" strategy, focusing on cost optimization, quality improvement, stable delivery times, fast service response, and dense network coverage [15] - The strategy aims to enhance customer retention and attract new customers, driving long-term growth in both volume and profitability [15] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by 17% YoY to 11.6 billion CNY in 2024, 16% YoY to 13.5 billion CNY in 2025, and 13% YoY to 15.24 billion CNY in 2026 [19] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 105% YoY to 803 million CNY in 2024, 24% YoY to 1 billion CNY in 2025, and 15% YoY to 1.15 billion CNY in 2026 [19] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 10.79x in 2024, 8.67x in 2025, and 7.53x in 2026 [19]
安能物流（09956）2024Q3业绩点评：业务结构优化+精细化管理，业绩继续保持快速增长