有友食品首次覆盖报告：泡卤零食龙头，迎来成长拐点

Investment Rating and Core Views - The report initiates coverage on Youyou Foods with an "Overweight" rating, setting a target price of 13.4 yuan, corresponding to a 29X PE for 2025 [3] - The core view is that Youyou Foods, as a leader in the pickled and braised snack market, is expected to see accelerated growth due to new product categories and channel expansions [2][3] - The company's EPS is forecasted to grow by 33%, 30%, and 26% year-over-year for 2024-2026, reaching 0.36, 0.46, and 0.58 yuan respectively [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow by 19.4%, 28.1%, and 25.3% year-over-year for 2024-2026, reaching 1.154, 1.478, and 1.852 billion yuan respectively [8] - Net profit is expected to increase by 30.8%, 29.8%, and 25.9% year-over-year for 2024-2026, reaching 152, 197, and 248 million yuan respectively [8] - The PE valuation method suggests a fair value of 12.91 yuan based on a 28X PE for 2025, while the FCFF method suggests a fair value of 13.92 yuan, leading to an average target price of 13.4 yuan [16][18][20] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Youyou Foods holds a market share of over 20% in the pickled chicken feet segment, with sales exceeding 1 billion yuan, significantly ahead of the second-tier competitors whose revenues range between 100-200 million yuan [3] - The company's brand and product quality are leading in the industry, with non-chicken feet products accounting for over 25% of revenue in 2023, and the new deboned duck feet product contributing 70 million yuan in Q3 2024 [3][37] - The company is expected to strengthen its market position as the industry moves towards larger-scale and more standardized operations, with significant room for market share growth [3] Product and Channel Strategy - Youyou Foods is expanding its product matrix, with traditional chicken feet products stabilizing and new products like deboned duck feet gaining traction, especially in the Sam's Club channel [3][37] - The company is accelerating its national expansion, with a focus on the East China market, where revenue grew by 16.7% year-over-year in Q3 2024 [47] - The company is actively embracing membership-based supermarkets like Sam's Club and Costco, with the deboned duck feet product becoming a top seller in Sam's Club, contributing significantly to Q3 2024 revenue [48] Industry Outlook - The spicy snack market in China is expected to reach 228.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 8.7% from 2019-2024, indicating strong growth potential [31] - The pickled chicken feet market is fragmented, with over 600 manufacturers, but Youyou Foods leads with a 20% market share, and the industry is expected to consolidate further, benefiting larger players [33] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for spicy snacks, with its strong brand and product innovation capabilities [31][33]