SNS(300470) 国信证券·2024-11-19 09:55Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Zhongmi Holdings (300470 SZ) [1][4] Core Views - Zhongmi Holdings is a leading player in the mechanical seal industry, actively promoting international development [1] - The company's revenue grew 15 56% YoY to 1 143 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing 9 15% to 271 million yuan [1] - Gross profit margin and net profit margin stood at 47 14% and 23 98% respectively, down 4 05 and 2 33 percentage points YoY due to reduced capital expenditure in the petrochemical sector and intense competition [1] - The company demonstrated good cost control, with a three-fee ratio of 15 46%, down 1 27 percentage points YoY [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: 1 143 billion yuan (+15 56% YoY) [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit: 271 million yuan (+9 15% YoY) [1] - 2024E revenue forecast: 1 503 billion yuan (+9 7% YoY) [2] - 2024E net profit forecast: 373 million yuan (+7 7% YoY) [2] Profitability - 2024E gross margin: 49% [17] - 2024E EBIT margin: 26 7% [2] - 2024E ROE: 13 3% [2] Valuation - 2024E PE: 20 2x [2] - 2024E PB: 2 69x [2] - 2024E EV/EBITDA: 18 5x [2] Business Segments Domestic Operations - Existing business showed recovery in Q3 2024 after a decline in H1 2024 [1] - Incremental business maintained growth despite macroeconomic challenges in the petrochemical sector [1] International Operations - International revenue grew rapidly, driven by the Belt and Road initiative and enhanced overseas service capabilities [1] - Acquired 70% stake in German KS GmbH, a leading producer of resin-based laminated materials, with remaining 30% expected to be acquired next year [1] - KS GmbH contributed approximately 20 million yuan in Q3 2024 [1] Special Valves Segment - Achieved rapid growth through successful market expansion by subsidiary Xindi Peier [1] - Secured multiple large projects in water conservancy and petrochemical fields [1] Financial Projections Income Statement - 2024E revenue: 1 503 billion yuan [17] - 2024E operating profit: 429 million yuan [17] - 2024E net profit: 373 million yuan [17] Balance Sheet - 2024E total assets: 3 295 billion yuan [17] - 2024E total liabilities: 482 million yuan [17] - 2024E equity: 2 809 billion yuan [17] Cash Flow - 2024E operating cash flow: 11 million yuan [17] - 2024E free cash flow: -43 million yuan [17] Industry Position - Maintains high market share in mechanical seal industry despite intense competition [1] - Strong comprehensive competitiveness in both domestic and international markets [1]