SHANTUI(000680) 浙商证券·2024-11-19 09:55Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [8] Core Views - The company is a global leader in bulldozers, with large horsepower bulldozer exports enhancing profitability, and the excavator business is expected to gain momentum [2] - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Shandong Heavy Industry Construction Machinery for 1.8 billion yuan, which is expected to boost the excavator business and open up market space [3] - The excavator business is expected to leverage the sales channels of bulldozers and the platform advantages of Shandong Heavy Industry Group to rapidly grow [13] - The company's bulldozer sales rank third globally, and it is the domestic leader with a market share of over 70% in 2023 [6] Key Drivers - Large horsepower bulldozer exports are expected to enhance profitability, with exports of large horsepower bulldozers (above 320 horsepower) increasing by 37% in the first nine months of 2024 [6] - The company's excavator business is expected to benefit from the synergy of Shandong Heavy Industry Group's resources, including Weichai Power, Linde Hydraulics, and Shantui's transmission components, offering more fuel-efficient and reliable products [3] - The company has a well-established sales network, with products sold in over 160 countries and regions, and 160 overseas agents [3] Financial Projections - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.025 billion yuan, 1.329 billion yuan, and 1.656 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 30%, and 25% [14] - The PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14x, 11x, and 9x, respectively, which are below the industry average [14] Industry Comparison - The company's 2025 PE valuation is 11x, lower than the industry average of 13x [28] - The company's ROE is expected to be 19%, 23%, and 23% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, higher than the industry average [16] Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire Shandong Heavy Industry Construction Machinery for 1.8 billion yuan, with the acquired company's market share in excavators being 4.03% in the first nine months of 2024 [20] - The acquired company's revenue in the first nine months of 2024 was 2.426 billion yuan, with a net profit of 75.06 million yuan [21] - Shandong Heavy Industry Group has committed to resolving the competition issue between Shantui, Lovol Heavy Industry, and Weichai Qingdao within five years [22]