福能股份：Q3短期因素扰动业绩，储备项目稳健推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.485 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.773 billion yuan, up 8.38% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.744 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.13% year-on-year, and a net profit of 585 million yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial and Operational Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company completed an on-grid electricity generation of 167.58 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.47%. However, Q3 saw a slight decline in on-grid electricity generation, down 3.35% year-on-year. The company’s gas-fired power generation increased by 9.65% year-on-year to 16.46 billion kWh, while coal-fired generation decreased by 20.41% to 13.65 billion kWh, leading to an overall decline in thermal power generation by 3.77% year-on-year [1] Project Development and Future Outlook - The company has a robust project reserve, with an expected installed capacity of 6.038 million kW as of H1 2024. The company is advancing several projects, including the Ningde Nuclear Power Phase II and various wind power projects, which are expected to contribute significantly to future earnings. The company’s ongoing construction projects have seen a 136% year-on-year increase in the amount recorded, reaching 2.228 billion yuan as of Q3 2024 [1][13] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is viewed positively for its long-term growth potential, with profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 set at 2.870 billion yuan, 3.100 billion yuan, and 3.467 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.41%, 8.00%, and 11.85%. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.82 for 2024, 8.16 for 2025, and 7.30 for 2026 [1][13]