SPZP(300616) 东方证券·2024-11-19 11:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.37 CNY [4][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue continued to decline in the third quarter, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.09%, resulting in a net profit attributable to the parent company of -0.08 million CNY [2][3]. - The company is undergoing channel and organizational adjustments, compounded by a low overall industry sentiment and intensified competition, leading to a sustained downward trend in revenue [2][3]. - The introduction of government subsidies is expected to gradually improve the home furnishing market, potentially boosting the company's revenue [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.732 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 22.22%, with a net profit of -114 million CNY [2][3]. - The third quarter revenue was 1.022 billion CNY, down 29.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of -8 million CNY [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 34.18%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the proportion of direct sales revenue following channel adjustments [2][3]. - The operating expense ratio increased to 34.82%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a significant decline in revenue [2][3]. - The net profit margin for the third quarter was -0.81%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability [2][3]. Future Outlook - The recent implementation of "old-for-new" policies for home products is expected to enhance consumer traffic and conversion rates, positively impacting the company's revenue growth [2][3]. - The company is also enhancing its subsidy policies and expanding online payment channels to increase consumer reach and improve market conditions [2][3]. Financial Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are -68 million CNY, 51 million CNY, and 58 million CNY respectively, with adjustments made to revenue growth assumptions for custom furniture and related products [3][8].