周大生：加盟渠道销售承压，渠道扩张节奏放缓

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 13.75 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 12.26 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.809 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million CNY, down 21.95% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2024 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 2.612 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 40.91%, with a net profit of 253 million CNY, down 28.70% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 20.58%, an increase of 2.36 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q3 gross margin was 27.48%, up 9.7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company experienced a notable increase in operating expenses, with a Q3 expense ratio of 12.62%, up 7.03 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased promotional expenses [4]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from self-operated offline business grew by 9.77% year-on-year to 1.354 billion CNY, and e-commerce revenue increased by 5.94% year-on-year to 1.653 billion CNY. However, revenue from franchise business fell by 19.75% year-on-year to 7.66 billion CNY [5]. - As of the end of September, the company had a total of 5,235 retail outlets, comprising 4,886 franchise stores and 349 self-operated stores, marking a net increase of 129 stores since the beginning of the year [5]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 14.461 billion CNY, 16.277 billion CNY, and 17.980 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -11.2%, 12.6%, and 10.5% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.08 billion CNY, 1.23 billion CNY, and 1.37 billion CNY for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of -18.2%, 13.9%, and 11.7% [5].