YUTO TECH.(002831) 广发证券·2024-11-19 13:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yuto Packaging Technology (002831 SZ) with a target price of 27 90 yuan per share [3][6] Core Views - Yuto Packaging Technology is a leading enterprise in the paper packaging industry with a diversified product portfolio covering consumer electronics liquor tobacco luxury goods cosmetics and more The company has demonstrated strong resilience and growth with revenue increasing from 8 58 billion yuan in 2018 to 15 22 billion yuan in 2023 and net profit growing from 950 million yuan to 1 44 billion yuan during the same period [3] - The packaging industry is highly fragmented with paper packaging accounting for 23 25% of the total packaging market in China The industry faces challenges such as weak bargaining power limited transportation radius and difficulty in controlling upstream raw material prices [3] - The recovery of the consumer electronics sector in the second half of 2024 is expected to drive order growth for Yuto Packaging Technology The company holds a 20 6% market share in the consumer electronics packaging sector and is well positioned to benefit from the industry rebound [3] - Yuto Packaging Technology is advancing its globalization and intelligent manufacturing strategies The company has established a presence in 10 countries and over 40 cities globally with 50+ production bases and 5 service centers The company s early adoption of intelligent factory upgrades is expected to drive cost reductions and efficiency improvements [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 16 36 billion yuan in 2023 to 21 81 billion yuan in 2026 with a CAGR of 12 6% Net profit is expected to increase from 1 44 billion yuan in 2023 to 2 10 billion yuan in 2026 with a CAGR of 13 2% [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1 75 yuan in 2024 to 2 26 yuan in 2026 The company s PE ratio is expected to decline from 14 71x in 2024 to 11 43x in 2026 reflecting strong earnings growth [5] Industry Overview - The Chinese packaging industry is highly fragmented with paper packaging being a significant segment accounting for 23 25% of the total market in 2023 The industry is expected to grow steadily with the market size projected to reach 1 195 trillion yuan in 2024 [58] - The consumer electronics packaging market is relatively concentrated with Yuto Packaging Technology holding a leading 20 6% market share in 2022 The recovery of the consumer electronics sector is expected to drive demand for packaging [67] - The tobacco packaging market is under pressure due to anti corruption measures in the tobacco industry but this could lead to a reshuffling of the competitive landscape Yuto Packaging Technology has a 2% market share in the tobacco packaging sector and is well positioned to capture new opportunities [73] Company Strategy and Competitive Advantages - Yuto Packaging Technology has a diversified product portfolio including paper packaging soft packaging plant fiber molded products and biodegradable materials The company s products are widely used in consumer electronics smart hardware healthcare cosmetics tobacco liquor and environmental packaging [28] - The company has a strong focus on globalization and intelligent manufacturing with a presence in 10 countries and over 40 cities globally The company s intelligent factory upgrades are expected to drive cost reductions and efficiency improvements [3] - Yuto Packaging Technology has a strong customer base including leading global brands in consumer electronics liquor and tobacco The company s ability to provide integrated packaging solutions has enhanced its competitiveness and customer loyalty [92]