IMDTECL(SZ:002128) Guoxin Securities·2024-11-19 13:22Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is a comprehensive energy enterprise focusing on the synergistic development of coal, electricity, and aluminum, benefiting from rising coal and aluminum prices as well as increasing renewable energy installations [1][24]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth and improved performance, with a projected net profit of 5.67 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 24.3% increase year-on-year [2][24]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Established in 2001 and listed in 2007, the company has rapidly entered the thermal power and electrolytic aluminum industries through acquisitions in 2014 and 2019 [1][17]. - As of September 30, 2024, the controlling shareholder holds 55.77% of the shares, with the actual controller being the State Power Investment Corporation [1][17]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 26.85 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.56 billion yuan, up 14.4% year-on-year [2][24]. - The revenue composition for 2023 was 53% from electrolytic aluminum, 34% from coal, 7% from coal power, and 4% from renewable energy [1][24]. Coal Business - The company operates large open-pit coal mines with a certified production capacity of 48 million tons per year, benefiting from low extraction costs and stable pricing due to long-term contracts [1][44]. - In 2023, coal production was 46.55 million tons, with sales of 46.47 million tons, maintaining a production-sales ratio of approximately 100% [44][49]. Electrolytic Aluminum Business - The company has a current electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 860,000 tons per year, with a projected increase to 1.21 million tons by the end of 2025 [1][54]. - The average electricity cost for electrolytic aluminum production has been maintained at 0.27-0.28 yuan per kWh, significantly lower than the industry average [1][54]. Thermal Power Business - The company owns two large pithead thermal power units with a capacity of 2×600 MW, ensuring stable profitability due to advantageous geographical location and low transportation costs [1][24]. Renewable Energy Business - The company has rapidly increased its renewable energy capacity from 1.56 million kW in 2021 to 4.55 million kW in 2023, with plans to exceed 7 million kW by 2025 [1][24]. - The gross profit margin for renewable energy generation was approximately 54% in 2023, significantly higher than the company's average of 32% [1][24]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.7 billion, 6.05 billion, and 6.67 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.4, 7.8, and 7.1 [2][24]. - The estimated stock price range is between 23.00 and 24.30 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 11% to 17% compared to the closing price on November 19 [4][24].