CBMT(603099) 广发证券·2024-11-20 01:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changbai Mountain (603099 SH) with a target price of 40 18 yuan per share based on a 25-year 50X PE valuation [4][21] Core Views - Changbai Mountain's Q3 2024 revenue reached 3 40 billion yuan, up 3 19% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9 04% YoY to 1 27 billion yuan due to typhoon impacts during the peak summer season [4] - The company's Q3 2024 gross margin declined by 5 37 percentage points YoY to 57 9%, primarily due to the closure of scenic areas during the typhoon and adverse weather affecting hotel room rates and occupancy [4] - The report expects the company to benefit from the opening of the Shenbai high-speed railway in 2025 and the long-term growth of ice and snow tourism [21] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, Changbai Mountain achieved revenue of 5 95 billion yuan, up 19 55% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 48 billion yuan, down 2 52% YoY [4] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be 7 53 billion yuan, 8 80 billion yuan, and 9 96 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 21 3%, 16 9%, and 13 3% respectively [21] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1 72 billion yuan, 2 14 billion yuan, and 2 59 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 24 2%, 24 9%, and 20 9% respectively [21] Business Segments Tourism Transportation - The company's tourism transportation revenue is expected to grow from 5 44 billion yuan in 2024 to 7 49 billion yuan in 2026, with a gross margin of around 50% [13][14] - The number of visitors to Changbai Mountain reached 3 07 million from January to October 2024, up 23 5% YoY, and is expected to reach 3 35 million for the full year [13] Hotel Business - Hotel revenue is projected to grow from 1 4 billion yuan in 2024 to 1 6 billion yuan in 2026, with a gross margin increasing from 32% in 2023 to 35% in 2026 [14] Travel Agency Business - Travel agency revenue is expected to grow from 0 39 billion yuan in 2024 to 0 57 billion yuan in 2026, with a gross margin increasing from 48% in 2023 to 52% in 2026 [15] Industry Context - The State Council has emphasized the development of differentiated and characteristic ice and snow tourism, which is expected to benefit Changbai Mountain as a top-tier destination with "ice and snow + hot spring" resources [5][13] - The opening of the Shenbai high-speed railway in 2025 is anticipated to significantly boost visitor numbers to the region [21]