BABA(HK:09988) Soochow Securities·2024-11-20 04:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988 HK) [1][3] Core Views - Alibaba's FY2025Q2 revenue growth was slightly below expectations, with a 5% YoY increase to RMB 2365 billion, missing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB 2394 billion [1][18] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 36 5 billion (YoY -9%), exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB 356 2 billion [1][18] - Taotian Group's GMV showed healthy growth, with a 1% YoY increase in revenue to RMB 989 94 billion, driven by double-digit order growth [2][25] - International Digital Commerce revenue exceeded expectations, with strong growth in Choice and improved unit economics [2][31] - Local Living Services saw significant narrowing of losses, with continued growth in Amap and Ele me orders [2][31] - Alibaba Cloud achieved double-digit growth in public cloud products, with AI-related products maintaining triple-digit YoY growth for five consecutive quarters [2][37] Business Performance Summary Taotian Group - Revenue increased 1% YoY to RMB 989 94 billion, with customer management revenue up 2% [2][25] - 88VIP members exceeded 46 million, with GMV growth driven by increased purchase frequency, partially offset by lower average order value [2][25] - EBITA margin declined 3 17 percentage points YoY to 45 04%, reflecting increased investment [2][25] International Digital Commerce - Revenue grew 29% YoY to RMB 316 72 billion, with EBITA margin at -9 17% [2][31] - International retail commerce revenue increased 37% YoY to RMB 256 18 billion, driven by cross-border business growth, particularly AliExpress Choice [2][31] - International wholesale commerce revenue rose 11% YoY to RMB 60 54 billion [2][31] Local Living Services - Revenue increased 14% YoY to RMB 177 25 billion, driven by order growth in Amap and Ele me [2][31] - Losses narrowed significantly due to improved operational efficiency and business scale [2][31] Alibaba Cloud - Revenue grew 7% YoY to RMB 296 10 billion, with public cloud products driving double-digit growth [2][37] - AI-related products achieved triple-digit YoY growth for five consecutive quarters [2][37] Cainiao - Revenue increased 8% YoY to RMB 246 47 billion, driven by cross-border logistics fulfillment solutions [2][32] Financial Forecasts - FY2025/FY2026/FY2027 EPS forecasts maintained at RMB 8 09/8 76/9 48, with corresponding Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 10 0/9 3/8 6x [3][37] - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 941 168 billion in FY2024A to RMB 1 194 600 billion in FY2027E, with a CAGR of 8 3% [1][44] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 80 009 billion in FY2024A to RMB 134 062 billion in FY2027E [1][44]