Longi(601012) 海通证券·2024-11-20 06:40Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [2] Core Views - The company's profitability showed signs of recovery in Q3 2024, with a significant narrowing of losses compared to the previous quarter [5] - The company is making steady progress in BC technology capacity construction, with plans to achieve 70GW of BC battery capacity by the end of 2025 [6] - The company's HPBC 2.0 technology has achieved a mass production efficiency of 26.6%, with the latest BC second-generation module products reaching up to 24.8% efficiency [7] - The company aims to achieve 30GW of BC battery shipments by 2025, with a target gross margin 10% higher than existing TOPCon products [7] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 20.064 billion yuan, down 31.87% YoY and 3.79% QoQ [5] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.261 billion yuan, a 150.14% YoY decrease but a significant narrowing of losses compared to the previous quarter [5] - The company shipped 38.37GW of silicon wafers and 21.39GW of battery modules in Q3 2024, showing sequential growth [6] Business Segments - Silicon wafer business: Expected revenue of 9.2 billion yuan in 2024, with gross margin of 4% [12] - Module business: Expected revenue of 65.6 billion yuan in 2024, with gross margin of 6% [12] - Other businesses: Expected revenue of 5.2 billion yuan in 2024, with gross margin maintained at 25% [12] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of -7.627 billion yuan, 5.266 billion yuan, and 7.140 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8] - The report gives a reasonable value range of 22.08-24.15 yuan for 2025, based on a valuation multiple of 32-35 times [8] - Revenue is expected to grow by 22.6% and 20.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [10]