XIAOMI(01810) 华安证券·2024-11-20 08:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching a historical high of 92.5 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 30.5%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 2.5% [2] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was recorded at 6.25 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 5.8% [2] - The automotive business showed significant improvement, with a gross margin of 17.1%, which is notably higher than the market expectation of 12.1% [2] - The report anticipates further improvement in automotive gross margins in Q4, driven by increased production capacity and reduced unit production costs [2] - The smartphone segment demonstrated a strong performance with a year-over-year shipment increase of 3.1%, and the average selling price (ASP) rose by 10.6% year-over-year [2][4] - The IoT business continued to grow robustly, with major appliances driving margin improvements, achieving a gross margin of 20.8% in the latest quarter [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was 92.5 billion yuan, up 30.5% year-over-year, and adjusted net profit was 6.25 billion yuan, exceeding expectations [2] - The automotive business revenue reached 9.7 billion yuan, surpassing market expectations by 8.9% [2] - The company expects revenues of 357.4 billion yuan, 436 billion yuan, and 515.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 31.9%, 22%, and 18.3% [4] Business Segments - Smartphone revenue was 47.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.9% [2] - IoT revenue was 26.1 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-over-year [2] - The automotive segment's gross margin improved significantly, indicating a positive trend for future quarters [2] Future Outlook - The report projects adjusted net profits of 24 billion yuan, 28.1 billion yuan, and 35.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 24.6%, 16.8%, and 27% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the strong market response to its new product launches, particularly the Xiaomi 15 series, which has seen rapid sales growth [2][4]