hbky(600985) 广发证券·2024-11-20 10:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.82 CNY per share based on a 9x PE for 2025 [5][2]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance showed a sequential decline of 11%, primarily due to a drop in both volume and price of commodity coal. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 4.14 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2% [1][2]. - The company is a leading coking coal producer in East China, with a high proportion of long-term coal sales contracts, indicating strong earnings stability. The anticipated completion of the 8 million ton Tuhutu coal mine is expected to increase coal production capacity by over 30% compared to 2023 [2][5]. - The company has successfully achieved production capacity for its 600,000-ton anhydrous ethanol project in Q3, with several other projects in coal, chemicals, and power generation expected to be completed and operational in the next two years [1][2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 73.592 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.3%. However, the forecast for 2024 indicates a revenue decline of 9.3% to 66.740 billion CNY [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is projected at 6.225 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.2% decrease from the previous year. The EPS for 2024 is expected to be 1.94 CNY, with a gradual increase to 2.24 CNY by 2026 [3][2]. - The company's EBITDA for 2023 is estimated at 11.960 billion CNY, with a forecasted decline to 10.923 billion CNY in 2024 [3]. Production and Sales Data - In Q3, the company produced 5.35 million tons of commodity coal, a year-on-year decrease of 1% but a sequential increase of 5%. The coal sales volume was 3.85 million tons, down 3% year-on-year and 4% sequentially [1]. - The average revenue per ton of coal was 1,053 CNY, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase but a 5% sequential decline. The cost per ton was 541 CNY, up 6% year-on-year and 1% sequentially [1]. Future Outlook - The company expects to benefit from the resumption of production at the Xinhu Mine next year, which is anticipated to contribute additional output. The average price of coking coal in Q4 has stabilized after a reduction in September [1][2].